Mood: on fire
Topic: "Talkin' Turkey" (3)
Frodo has indicated on numerous occasions that the entire premise of the Pre-Emptive War was based on poor analysis. Forsaking all reference to science, the theoreticians of the "New American Century" totally ignored the behavioral variables which negatively impacted on their desired course of action. Taking their flawed logic to a willing audience produced what many have referred to as the "greatest American Foreign Policy blunder." Frodo desires to spend a few moments this evening similarly projecting the outcome.
Sunni and Shiite Arabs have battled for nearly 1500 years over which interpretation of the Islamic progeniture is correct. The struggle has often been bitter and violent. It has never ended, it has only experienced lulls. That is variable number one.
With the end of World War II, the Ottoman Empire suffered for its' support of the defeated Germans. The Empire found itself nestled into what we now know as Turkey, and the imperial outskirts became the newly-enfranchised Arab and Persian states, one of which was dubbed "Iraq." There are no Iraqi peoples. That is variable number two.
The British assumed responsibility for the implementation of this "New British Century," and promptly embarked upon a process of training the Arabs to defend and govern themselves, under a model designed by, and for the benefit of, the British Empire. These stalwart scions of colonialism failed to assess the religious influences present in these newly-drawn and strangely shaped little countries. Absent governmental institutions, it was religious and dictatorial influences which assumed eventual control throughout the region. That is variable number three.
Taking these three variables, recognizing that they in no way represent all of the potential factors which will come into play in the days before us, it is logical to build a sentence or two just based on the facts. Such a sentence may read thusly; "Religious institutional leadership will emerge over the governmental institutions and violence will continue as homogenous groups draw closer together."
Given the sentence just composed dear reader, let us summarize what will happen when the American military presence follows in the footsteps of the British, the Russians, and the Crusaders. The Shiite militias will unite to bring down the "Iraqi Government," and the Sunni minority will be subjected to the next Holocaust. Iran and Iraq, Persian and Arab, will bring pressure against Sunni-dominated states like Saudi Arabia and Egypt. A balance-of-power will be achieved only by armed conflict and its' threat. The result will assumedly produce economic disruption in all of the world's industrialized nations.
Frodo is certainly brash in this pronouncement, even if the logic is based on behavioral variables, which represents a little bit of science. What is frightening is that there are those, equally brash, who base their pronouncements on the wind. What makes anyone think that there will be no bloodbath if American troops stay in Iraq one more day, or forty more years? The bloodbath is coming, and it will be religious, not political, and that is what makes all of the cost, all of the human waste, so very tragic. It is waste.
How does George W. Bush sleep at night?