Topic: "Frodo Study Group" (2)
Saddam Hussein has been sentenced to death and, sooner or later, somebody is planning to hang the old boy. Can you imagine, dear reader, what Iraq will be like, given the present circumstances, on that day?
The lock-step analyses of the Bush Administration and the Baker-Hamilton Study Group have, or will have soon, concluded that the major role for US Forces must move from combat to training. This, of course, assumes that both combat and training will be continuing endeavors between the present and the eventual "draw down" dates. Wouldn't it make more sense, dear reader, to minimize the combat role during the training phase?
Negotiating with ones' adversaries is not an uncommon event, and negotiations have produced documents as notable as the Magna Carta, for example. The United States spent many long hours in negotiations with the North Koreans in order to cease the fighting on the border of that member of the "Evil Axis." Negotiating with leverage, i.e. holding a trump card behind your back, and knowing that you have it, is as successful in Poker as it is in Nuclear Brinksmanship.
Given these observations, Frodo provides the following suggestions to Sauron as input to the "recommendations" he is analyzing, along with the ISG input, from his Generals "in the field" and from "his staff."
Set a date for the removal of all "Coalition" troops from Iraq. The date will precede the scheduled execution date of Saddam Hussein. Inform the Maliki Government that all in-country US troops will immediately be made available, embedded in Iraqi forces if so desired, to train and supply their Iraqi counterparts as their principal role and responsibility. The Governments of Syria and Iran will be informed of the final date of total troop drawdown, and offered the opportunity to participate in the schedule for implementation.
Frodo's plan defines who is doing what and when, and for the first time, why. Iran is a nation-state which is predominantly Persian Shiite. Syria is a nation-state which is predominantly Sunni. Since Iraq is a predominant conglomeration of Non-Persian (Arabic) Shiites, and Sunnis, the theoretical outside sponsors of insurgency (Iran and Syria) will be faced with the prospect of their present allegiance being torn asunder by their non-sectarian interests within Iraqi borders. Imagine Syria, for example, trying to defend the life of Saddam Hussein in order to appease their brothers in Iraq. Iran, on the other hand, will find itself dealing with many of the same Shiite Militia who currently exist, because the Persian and Arabic distinctions are as deep as are those of Sunni and Shi'ia. Didn't know that did you, dear reader? The bad news is neither does George W. Bush.
Setting a definite date, according to the Neo-Cons, would only mean that the insurgents will wait until the US is gone and then waltz into Baghdad. Well, not if the US Forces take advantage of the "lull" in fighting that is assumed and devote their maximum effort to training and supply. Then, the US will have done everything possible to help prepare the Maliki Government to take responsibility. Most importantly, they will know the date of the "final exam."
Frodo suggests November 11th, 2007. At the eleventh hour. Bagpipes would be nice.